Modelling the Aviation Energy Transition

In 2019, global aviation generated approximately 1 billion tonnes of CO2, which is almost three times the amount released by the entire UK economy. Warming from contrails is of similar magnitude, and thus greatly increases this sector’s climate impact. Reducing the aviation climate impact is particularly challenging due to the sector’s high growth rate and long-lived assets, as well as the importance of non-CO2 climate impacts and the absence of commercially available, scalable zero-carbon or carbon-neutral technology. Consequently, careful consideration of all mitigation options is required, that is, reducing air transportation energy intensity, developing and scaling up synthetic fuels, and managing aviation demand. Building upon the integrated assessment models developed at UCL’s Air Transportation Systems Laboratory, this seminar will explore the opportunities and challenges for greatly reducing the aviation sector’s climate impact.